As a responsible, upstanding video marketing agency, we’d never dream of promising a client that their video will go viral (as the video above has gone in the last week). But with the arrival of a new algorithm, that might all soon be set to change (nb it probably won’t).

Unruly, the leading social video agency, has just launched ShareRank, an algorithm designed to tell marketeers just how likely their latest video is to be widely shared.

Claiming an 80% success rate, ShareRank uses social tracking technology which incorporates data from 300billion video streams from the last seven years, plus consumer research and academic field research.

As we’ve written about on the Spectrecom blog many times previously, the emphasis in video marketing these days is very much on ‘engagement’ (e.g. social media ‘likes’ and shares), rather than just breaking out the ol’ abacus and totting up the views. And that means that any method for predicting a video’s ‘share factor’ is going to pique plenty of interest.

But though measures can be taken to ensure a video has the best chance of success – from the first consideration of creative approach, through to online syndication after the film is finished – so varied, bespoke and, dare we say it, alchemical is the success of any viral video that forecasting in that area always looks risky.

However it’s not just viral video potential that is getting its own predictive algorithm – over in Japan, the Tottori University Department of Engineering has been beavering away on a mathematical model to determine which movies will hit big.

Here’s a video explaining all (well, some) and also revealing that in Japan, even Departments of Engineering rely on drawings of adorable li’l cartoon characters.

Find out more about our full range of video marketing services – take a look at our video explaining how we can help in terms of syndication, promotion and optimisation. 

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